Cost-Benefit Analysis of Synthetic Nucleic Acid Screening for the UK
Interactive data visualizations based on the CLTR report by Fady, Heron, Bruns & Nelson (December 2025). All values in 2025 GBP, discounted at 3.5% per HM Treasury Green Book. Figures reported as mean [5th percentile, 95th percentile].
Core Cost-Benefit Comparisons
1. Annual Costs and Benefits by Stakeholder
Table 1 — Mandatory screening of all orders >50bp vs voluntary status quo. Values in £ millions.
2. Net Benefit Waterfall
Average annual flows from costs through benefits to net benefit. For every £1 spent, the UK gains £3.50.
3. Discounted Annual Costs and Benefits Over Time (2027–2046)
Figure 2 — Growth driven by expanding synthetic nucleic acid market. Confidence bands show 5th–95th percentile.
Policy Option Comparisons
4. Per-Order Net Benefit by Sequence Length
Table A1 — Marginal net benefit per order for each screening threshold, with 90% confidence intervals.
5. Probability of Net Positive Outcome by Policy
Percentage of Monte Carlo simulations where benefits exceed costs.
6. Average Annual Costs and Benefits by Policy Tier
Table A3 — Average over 2027–2046 for each screening threshold. Values in £ millions.
Risk & Threat Model
7. Expected Annual Loss by Event Type
Annex A3.4 — Monetised expected harm from biological events involving the UK synthesis market. Log scale.
8. Risk Attribution by Sequence Length
Expert biosecurity survey — proportion of risk attributable to each order length category.
9. Risk Reduction Pathway
How baseline pandemic risk is filtered through the UK screening policy to arrive at expected benefit.
Sensitivity Analysis
10. Tornado Diagram — Key Variable Sensitivity
Annex C — Impact on average annual net benefit when each variable moves across its distribution range.
11. Distribution of Net Benefit Outcomes
Monte Carlo simulation results — distribution of annual average net direct benefit to the UK.
Market & Industry Context
12. Order Distribution by Length Category
Annex A3.5 — Proportion of UK orders by base pair length, showing which segments each policy captures.
13. Global Synthetic Nucleic Acid Market Size
Oligo market from $950M (2007) to $3.5–6.6B (2025), with projected growth to 2046.
14. UK Provider IGSC Membership
Of 18 UK-based manufacturers/resellers of nucleic acids, only 4 are IGSC members.
International & Scenarios
15. Domestic-Only vs International Harmonisation
Net benefit to the UK if 5–40% of foreign orders also adopt screening. Values in £ millions per year.
16. International Screening Policy Landscape
Key milestones in global adoption of synthetic nucleic acid screening legislation.
Cost Decomposition
17. Per-Order Cost Breakdown by Component
Tables A1 & annexes — Cost composition per order for each sequence length category. Values in £.
18. Regulatory Productivity Loss Multiplier
Annex A3.5.2 — Indirect costs are 1–3x direct compliance costs due to regulatory burden.
Model Inputs
19. Parameter Explorer
Adjust key input variables to see approximate impact on annual net benefit to the UK.
20. Key Input Variable Distributions
The model uses probability distributions, not point estimates. Shown as mean [5th, 95th percentile].
Data source: Fady, Heron, Bruns & Nelson (2025). Cost-Benefit Analysis of Synthetic Nucleic Acid Screening for the UK. The Centre for Long-Term Resilience.
Visualizations generated for analytical purposes. All figures rounded to 2 significant figures.
Visualizations generated for analytical purposes. All figures rounded to 2 significant figures.